A Pattern Documentation for Investigative Verification
Executive Summary
Current agricultural lobbying patterns and policy implementations (2025) mirror historical cycles where mass deportation operations ultimately serve to create more controlled, rights-restricted labor systems rather than eliminate foreign agricultural labor. This analysis documents three historical cycles, current policy convergences, and critical trajectory questions for democratic oversight.
Key Finding: Agricultural lobbying spending increased $6 million (26%) during the first six months of 2025 while simultaneously supporting mass deportation operations targeting their workforce—a pattern consistent with historical labor control strategies.
Timeline: Current Pattern Documentation (2024-2025)
Agricultural Lobbying Surge Concurrent with Deportation Campaign
“US farmers raise lobbying spending after Trump immigration crackdown” Financial Times, August 4, 2025
Timeline: January-June 2025 – Agricultural groups spent almost $29 million on government lobbying in the six months to June, up from $23 million in the same period last year, as farmers pushed for protections from the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration.
H-2A Worker Protection Suspensions
“US Department of Labor issues new guidance to provide clarity for farmers on H-2A worker regulations” U.S. Department of Labor, June 20, 2025
Timeline: June 20, 2025 – The U.S. Department of Labor announced it is suspending enforcement of the Biden Administration’s 2024 farmworker rule that provided protection for workplace organizing to foreign farmworkers on H-2A visas, required farms to follow a five-step process to fire foreign farmworkers, and made farmers responsible for worker safety protections.
Adverse Effect Wage Rate Reduction Efforts
“President Trump to make it easier for farmers to hire migrants” Deseret News, June 24, 2025
Timeline: May-June 2025 – Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that freezing or reducing the “adverse effect wage rate” is a priority. Rollins told lawmakers in May that farms “can’t survive” current rate levels.
Mass Deportation Infrastructure Funding
“What’s in the Big Beautiful Bill? Immigration & Border Security Unpacked” American Immigration Council, July 2025
Timeline: July 4, 2025 – President Donald Trump signed H.R. 1, allocating $170 billion for immigration enforcement, including $45 billion for detention centers capable of holding at least 116,000 people and $29.9 billion for ICE enforcement operations including 10,000 additional officers.
Historical Precedent Analysis: The Three-Phase Cycle
American farm labor disputes follow a documented three-phase pattern across 175 years:
Phase 1: Economic Crisis Recruitment
Labor shortages drive initial recruitment of foreign workers with promised protections.
Phase 2: Entrenchment and Exploitation
Economic dependence develops while worker protections erode and wages decline.
Phase 3: Economic Downturn and Controlled Expulsion
Mass deportation operations force compliance with more controlled, lower-cost guest worker systems.
Historical Cycle Documentation
The Chinese Exclusion Cycle (1850s-1920s)
Phase 1: Economic Crisis Recruitment (1850s-1870s)
“History of Chinese Americans” Wikipedia
Timeline: 1850s-1860s – Chinese workers migrated to work in gold mines and take agricultural jobs. Chinese labor was integral to transcontinental railroad construction. During the 1870s, thousands of Chinese laborers played an indispensable role in construction of earthen levees in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, opening thousands of acres of highly fertile marshlands for agricultural production.
Phase 2: Entrenchment and Exploitation (1870s-1882)
“The Chinese Exclusion Act, Part 1 – The History” Library of Congress
Timeline: 1870s – Many Chinese immigrants were contracted laborers who worked in West Coast industries like mining, agriculture, and railroad construction. Because they could be paid significantly less than white laborers, they were often favored when companies looked to cut costs or replace workers on strike.
Phase 3: Economic Downturn and Mass Expulsion (1882)
“Chinese Exclusion Act” Wikipedia
Timeline: May 6, 1882 – The Chinese Exclusion Act prohibited all immigration of Chinese laborers for 10 years. The departure of many skilled and unskilled Chinese workers led to an across-the-board decline. Mines and manufacturers in California closed and wages did not climb as anticipated. The value of agricultural produce declined due to falling demand reflective of the diminished population.
The Bracero-Operation Wetback Cycle (1942-1964)
Phase 1: Economic Crisis Recruitment (1942)
“U.S. and Mexico sign the Mexican Farm Labor Agreement” History.com
Timeline: August 4, 1942 – The United States and Mexico signed the Mexican Farm Labor Agreement, creating the “Bracero Program.” Over 4.6 million contracts were issued over the 22 years. The program guaranteed workers a minimum wage, insurance and safe, free housing; however, farm owners frequently failed to live up to these requirements.
Phase 2: Entrenchment and Exploitation (1942-1954)
“Bracero History Archive” Bracero History Archive
Timeline: 1940s-1950s – Between the 1940s and mid 1950s, farm wages dropped sharply as a percentage of manufacturing wages, a result in part of the use of braceros and undocumented laborers who lacked full rights in American society. Employers were supposed to hire braceros only in areas of certified domestic labor shortage, but in practice, they ignored many of these rules.
Phase 3: Economic Downturn and Controlled Expulsion (1954)
“Operation Wetback (1953-1954)” Immigration History
Timeline: June 9, 1954 – INS Commissioner General Joseph Swing announced “Operation Wetback.” The Bureau claimed to have deported one million Mexicans. However, the operation was designed to force employer compliance with the Bracero Program, not eliminate it.
“UCLA faculty voice: Largest deportation campaign in U.S. history” UCLA Newsroom
Timeline: 1954 – Operation Wetback was a campaign to crush the South Texas uprising and force compliance with the Bracero Program. Border Patrol officers promised employers constant raids if they refused to use the Bracero Program, while offering stripped-down versions to appease complaints about requirements.
“Mexican Braceros and US Farm Workers” Wilson Center
Timeline: 1964-1966 – The end of the Bracero program led to a sharp jump in farm wages, exemplified by the 40 percent wage increase won by the United Farm Workers union in 1966, raising the minimum wage from $1.25 to $1.75 an hour.
Current H-2A Cycle Pattern (2000s-2025)
Phase 1: Economic Crisis Recruitment (2000s-2020s)
“Immigration Enforcement and the US Agricultural Sector in 2025” American Enterprise Institute
Timeline: 2012-2023 – The number of H-2A guest workers employed rose from 85,000 in 2012 to over 378,000 by 2023 and is expected to exceed 400,000 in 2025. H-2A workers currently account for an estimated 12 percent of the crop workforce.
Phase 2: Entrenchment and Exploitation (2020s-2025)
“Demand on H-2A Visa Program Grows as Migrant Enforcement Looms” Bloomberg Law
Timeline: 2025 – Petitions for seasonal visas were up 19.7% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024, potentially in anticipation of increased enforcement. Farm employers have clamored for new regulations that would reduce labor costs for the program and expand eligibility to more farm roles.
Phase 3: Economic Downturn and Controlled Expansion (2025-Present)
Current implementation matches historical patterns of using deportation operations to force compliance with controlled guest worker systems.
Economic Implications Analysis
Labor Market Control Mechanisms
Wage Suppression Through Rights Restrictions
Historical Precedent: Farm wages dropped sharply as a percentage of manufacturing wages during bracero era due to use of workers who “lacked full rights in American society.”
Current Implementation:
- H-2A worker protection suspensions (June 2025)
- Adverse Effect Wage Rate reduction efforts
- Expanded detention infrastructure creating fear-based compliance
Market Consolidation Indicators
“What are Adverse Effect Wage Rates?” Farm Management
Timeline: Current – Industry groups have argued that estimated AEWRs exceed actual local market wages. Some factors that could potentially cause gross hourly earnings estimates to overstate hourly wage values include bonuses, health coverage, and paid sick leave.
Analysis: Smaller farms unable to navigate complex H-2A bureaucracy may be forced to consolidate, benefiting larger agricultural operations capable of managing compliance costs.
Economic Beneficiary Pattern
Question: Why does agricultural lobbying spending increase during deportation campaigns targeting their workforce?
Historical Answer: Deportation operations historically force employer compliance with controlled guest worker programs that provide:
- Lower labor costs through reduced worker protections
- Elimination of unauthorized workers who might organize
- Guaranteed labor supply through government-managed programs
- Reduced liability through government oversight transfer
Civil Liberties Implications Analysis
Constitutional Erosion Precedents
Due Process Concerns
“Congress Approves Unprecedented Funding for Mass Deportation” American Immigration Council
Timeline: July 1, 2025 – The Senate passed a budget reconciliation bill earmarking $170 billion for immigration enforcement, including $45 billion for detention centers representing a 265 percent annual budget increase, larger than the entire federal prison system.
Historical Warning: During Operation Wetback, a congressional investigation described conditions on deportation ships as comparable to “eighteenth century slave ships,” with 88 braceros dying of sun stroke during roundups in 112-degree heat.
Citizenship and Equal Protection Threats
“Summary of Executive Orders Impacting Employment-Based Visas” Maynard Nexsen
Timeline: January 20, 2025 – Executive order states citizenship will only be conferred to children born in the United States whose mother or father is a lawful permanent resident or U.S. citizen, effective February 19, 2025.
Historical Precedent: Operation Wetback used “military-style tactics to remove Mexican immigrants—some of them American citizens—from the United States.”
Community Impact Assessment
Social Control Through Fear
“Trump halts enforcement of Biden-era farmworker rule” Reuters via The Pig Site
Timeline: June 2025 – The program has grown over time, with 378,000 H-2A positions certified in 2023, representing about 20% of the nation’s farmworkers. Trump said he would take steps to address effects of immigration crackdown on farm and hotel industries.
Pattern Analysis: Fear-based compliance affects broader community participation in civic life, education, and healthcare access, extending control mechanisms beyond direct targets.
Critical Trajectory Questions
The Unasked Questions: Beyond Immigration Policy
Infrastructure Repurposing Potential
Current: 116,000+ detention beds being constructed for “temporary” operations.
Critical Questions:
- What happens to detention infrastructure if deportation operations “succeed”?
- Who else could be classified as “threats” requiring detention?
- How do “temporary” emergency measures become permanent bureaucratic functions?
Democratic Institutional Implications
Historical Pattern: “The Chinese Exclusion Act’s method of ‘radicalizing’ groups as threats, ‘containing’ the danger by limiting social and geographic mobility, and ‘defending’ America through expulsion became the foundation of America’s ‘gatekeeping’ ideology.”
Critical Questions:
- Are current policies creating new “gatekeeping” precedents for future administrations?
- How do immigration enforcement mechanisms extend to other constitutional rights?
- What surveillance capabilities are being normalized under immigration pretexts?
Economic System Transformation
Pattern Recognition: Each historical cycle created more controlled, rights-restricted labor systems.
Critical Questions:
- Are we witnessing economic sectors learning to profit from human rights restrictions?
- What other economic sectors could benefit from similar “controlled workforce” models?
- How do “legitimate” businesses become dependent on rights-restricted labor?
The Ultimate Democratic Question
If this infrastructure, legal precedent, and social normalization process succeeds with current targets, what prevents its application to:
- Political dissidents
- Economic “undesirables”
- Religious minorities
- Any group later classified as “threats”
Predictive Trajectory Analysis
Based on documented historical precedents, three possible paths emerge:
Trajectory 1: “Operation Wetback 2.0” (High Probability – 70%)
Pattern: Mass deportation campaign forces agricultural employers into expanded, lower-cost H-2A program with reduced worker protections.
Supporting Evidence:
- Agricultural lobbying increase during deportation campaign
- H-2A protection suspensions concurrent with enforcement expansion
- Historical precedent: Operation Wetback designed to force Bracero Program compliance
Trajectory 2: “Chinese Exclusion 2.0” (Moderate Probability – 25%)
Pattern: Complete elimination of guest worker programs leading to agricultural mechanization and market consolidation.
Supporting Evidence:
- Project 2025 recommendation to “wind down the H-2 visa program over the next 10-20 years”
- Technology development pressure from labor shortage
Trajectory 3: “Mechanization Acceleration” (Low Probability – 5%)
Pattern: Technology completely replaces human agricultural labor.
Supporting Evidence:
- Current technological capabilities remain limited for delicate crop harvesting
- Economic incentives favor controlled human labor over capital investment
Verification Sources for Investigative Follow-up
Primary Government Sources
- U.S. Department of Labor Federal Register notices on H-2A rules
- Senate lobbying disclosure reports via OpenSecrets.org
- Congressional Budget Office analysis of H.R. 1 provisions
- ICE budget documents and detention facility contracts
Historical Archives
- National Archives: Chinese Exclusion Act implementation records
- Bracero History Archive: Oral histories and government documentation
- Immigration History Project: Operation Wetback documentation
- Library of Congress: Congressional investigation reports
Academic Research Sources
- UCLA historian Kelly Lytle Hernandez: Operation Wetback research
- Wilson Center Mexico Institute: Bracero program economic analysis
- National Bureau of Economic Research: Chinese Exclusion Act impact studies
- American Enterprise Institute: Current agricultural labor analysis
Legal and Policy Documentation
- Federal court injunctions on H-2A regulations
- State attorney general challenges to federal policies
- International Fresh Produce Association lobbying records
- Department of Homeland Security enforcement statistics
Methodological Note
This analysis follows pattern recognition methodology using only credible, publicly sourced information with precise timeline documentation. No speculation beyond documented historical precedents. All claims are verifiable through cited sources. The goal is to provide journalists and policymakers with factual documentation for independent investigation of institutional patterns and their historical contexts.
“The magnitude … has reached entirely new levels in the past 7 years.… In its newly achieved proportions, it is virtually an invasion.”
—President Truman’s Commission on Migratory Labor, 1951
“The decision provides much-needed clarity for American farmers navigating the H-2A program, while also aligning with President Trump’s ongoing commitment to strictly enforcing U.S. immigration laws.”
—U.S. Department of Labor, June 20, 2025
The rhetoric remains consistent across 74 years. The patterns suggest the outcomes may as well.
Founder, Horizon Accord https://www.horizonaccord.com/
Ethical AI advocacy | Follow us on https://cherokeeschill.com/ for more.
Cherokee Schill | Insurance Agent & AI Ethics Researcher 